Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 659 games through Nov 11
17%
Washington
83%
Duke
No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2026–27. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.
The biggest statistical gaps between Washington and Duke, quoted from their 2026–27 numbers. Opponent-adjusted efficiency and schedule strength stay hidden until both teams have played 8 games; until then they swing too much to mean anything.
Duke has the size advantage
Duke's minutes-weighted height is 3.0 inches taller than Washington's.
Edge: Duke
Pace clash: Duke runs, Washington slows it down
Duke averages 73.5 possessions per 40 minutes; Washington 67.3. Whoever sets the tempo plays its game.
Style matchup
Washington is safer at the line late
Washington shoots 79.1% on free throws; Duke 71.2%.
Edge: Washington
Duke has more continuity
Duke's minutes go to players averaging 1.89 seasons in the program; Washington's 1.36.
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 345 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Washington | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Shooting | 62nd | 51st |
| Rebounding | 60th | 61st |
| Ball security | 58th | 46th |
| Size & experience | 29th | 94th |
Games between them in 2026–27, then every earlier meeting we have.
Washington and Duke did not play each other this season.
No common opponents this season.