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History & Trends

Every champion since 1985, how each seed line has fared in the opening round, and the full 2026 bracket.

National champions

Pick a period to see how often the top seed line actually wins it all.

Reference

27 of 41 champions were 1 seeds (66%)

  1. 20261Michiganover UConn
  2. 20251Floridaover Houston
  3. 20241UConnover Purdue
  4. 20234UConnover San Diego State
  5. 20221Kansasover North Carolina
  6. 20211Baylorover Gonzaga
  7. 20191Virginiaover Texas Tech
  8. 20181Villanovaover Michigan
  9. 20171North Carolinaover Gonzaga
  10. 20162Villanovaover North Carolina
  11. 20151Dukeover Wisconsin
  12. 20147UConnover Kentucky
  13. 20131Louisvilleover Michigan · vacated
  14. 20121Kentuckyover Kansas
  15. 20113UConnover Butler
  16. 20101Dukeover Butler
  17. 20091North Carolinaover Michigan State
  18. 20081Kansasover Memphis
  19. 20071Floridaover Ohio State
  20. 20063Floridaover UCLA
  21. 20051North Carolinaover Illinois
  22. 20042UConnover Georgia Tech
  23. 20033Syracuseover Kansas
  24. 20021Marylandover Indiana
  25. 20011Dukeover Arizona
  26. 20001Michigan Stateover Florida
  27. 19991UConnover Duke
  28. 19982Kentuckyover Utah
  29. 19974Arizonaover Kentucky
  30. 19961Kentuckyover Syracuse
  31. 19951UCLAover Arkansas
  32. 19941Arkansasover Duke
  33. 19931North Carolinaover Michigan
  34. 19921Dukeover Michigan
  35. 19912Dukeover Kansas
  36. 19901UNLVover Duke
  37. 19893Michiganover Seton Hall
  38. 19886Kansasover Oklahoma
  39. 19871Indianaover Syracuse
  40. 19862Louisvilleover Duke
  41. 19858Villanovaover Georgetown

Champions by seed

  • 1 seed27
  • 2 seed5
  • 3 seed4
  • 4 seed2
  • 6 seed1
  • 7 seed1
  • 8 seed1

The NCAA vacated Louisville's 2013 title; it's shown for completeness. No tournament was held in 2020.

Round of 64 by seed line

How often the better seed survives the opening game, 1985–2026. 2026 results are added from our own game data.

  • 1 vs 16
    98.8%
    1.2%
    162–2
  • 2 vs 15
    93.3%
    6.7%
    153–11
  • 3 vs 14
    86.0%
    14.0%
    141–23
  • 4 vs 13
    79.9%
    20.1%
    131–33
  • 5 vs 12
    64.6%
    35.4%
    106–58
  • 6 vs 11
    61.6%
    38.4%
    101–63Disputed
  • 7 vs 10
    61.0%
    39.0%
    100–64Disputed
  • 8 vs 9
    47.0%
    53.0%
    77–87

The white bar is how often the better seed wins; the orange figure is the upset rate. Totals through 2025 come from published tallies; two pairings are flagged because sources disagree and will be recomputed from game-level history in Phase 7.

The 2026 bracket

Every result from the First Four to the title game. Click any team for its profile.

Verified

Beat their seed

2026 teams that won more than their seed line predicts

  1. 1IOWAIowa9Reached the Elite Eight · 3 wins vs 0 expected+3
  2. 2TEXTexas11Reached the Sweet 16 · 2 wins vs 0 expected+2
  3. 3TENTennessee6Reached the Elite Eight · 3 wins vs 1 expected+2
  4. 4ILLIllinois3Reached the Final Four · 4 wins vs 2 expected+2
  5. 5UCUConn2Reached the Championship · 5 wins vs 3 expected+2

Fell short

2026 teams that exited before their seed line predicts

  1. 1FLOFlorida1Out in the Round of 32 · 1 wins vs 4 expected-3
  2. 2DUKEDuke1Out in the Elite Eight · 3 wins vs 4 expected-1
  3. 3HOUHouston2Out in the Sweet 16 · 2 wins vs 3 expected-1
  4. 4ISUIowa State2Out in the Sweet 16 · 2 wins vs 3 expected-1
  5. 5GONGonzaga3Out in the Round of 32 · 1 wins vs 2 expected-1

Coming in Phase 7: seed advancement rates by period, a Cinderella database across decades, champion statistical profiles and boom-or-bust history. Explore the current field in the meantime.