Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 659 games through Nov 11
7%
Wagner
93%
Duke
No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2026–27. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.
The biggest statistical gaps between Wagner and Duke, quoted from their 2026–27 numbers. Opponent-adjusted efficiency and schedule strength stay hidden until both teams have played 8 games; until then they swing too much to mean anything.
Duke's hands vs. Wagner's ball security
Wagner turns it over on 27.0% of possessions (2nd percentile); Duke averages 11.0 steals (89th percentile).
Edge: Duke
Duke's bench scores more
Duke's reserves average 32.3 points per game; Wagner's 17.3.
Edge: Duke
Second chances for Wagner
Wagner grabs 37.3% of its misses (86th percentile); Duke secures 67.7% of opponents' misses (44th percentile).
Edge: Wagner
Duke has the size advantage
Duke's minutes-weighted height is 1.7 inches taller than Wagner's.
Edge: Duke
Duke has more continuity
Duke's minutes go to players averaging 1.89 seasons in the program; Wagner's 1.00.
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Wagner | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Shooting | 42nd | 52nd |
| Rebounding | 67th | 61st |
| Ball security | 2nd | 45th |
| Size & experience | 37th | 93rd |
Games between them in 2026–27, then every earlier meeting we have.
Wagner and Duke did not play each other this season.
No common opponents this season.