Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 659 games through Nov 11
10%
Vermont
90%
Duke
No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2026–27. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.
The biggest statistical gaps between Vermont and Duke, quoted from their 2026–27 numbers. Opponent-adjusted efficiency and schedule strength stay hidden until both teams have played 8 games; until then they swing too much to mean anything.
Pace clash: Duke runs, Vermont slows it down
Duke averages 73.5 possessions per 40 minutes; Vermont 63.3. Whoever sets the tempo plays its game.
Style matchup
Second chances for Duke
Duke grabs 35.4% of its misses (77th percentile); Vermont secures 63.8% of opponents' misses (19th percentile).
Edge: Duke
Duke's bench scores more
Duke's reserves average 32.3 points per game; Vermont's 13.7.
Edge: Duke
Duke's hands vs. Vermont's ball security
Vermont turns it over on 19.0% of possessions (34th percentile); Duke averages 11.0 steals (89th percentile).
Edge: Duke
Duke has the size advantage
Duke's minutes-weighted height is 2.2 inches taller than Vermont's.
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Vermont | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Shooting | 46th | 52nd |
| Rebounding | 35th | 61st |
| Ball security | 34th | 45th |
| Size & experience | 58th | 93rd |
Games between them in 2026–27, then every earlier meeting we have.
Vermont and Duke did not play each other this season.
Duke leads 1–0 since 2023–24.
No common opponents this season.