Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 659 games through Nov 11
19%
UNC Wilmington
81%
Duke
No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2026–27. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.
The biggest statistical gaps between UNC Wilmington and Duke, quoted from their 2026–27 numbers. Opponent-adjusted efficiency and schedule strength stay hidden until both teams have played 8 games; until then they swing too much to mean anything.
Second chances for Duke
Duke grabs 35.4% of its misses (77th percentile); UNC Wilmington secures 62.4% of opponents' misses (12th percentile).
Edge: Duke
Duke's hands vs. UNC Wilmington's ball security
UNC Wilmington turns it over on 20.0% of possessions (24th percentile); Duke averages 11.0 steals (89th percentile).
Edge: Duke
Second chances for UNC Wilmington
UNC Wilmington grabs 36.4% of its misses (83rd percentile); Duke secures 67.7% of opponents' misses (44th percentile).
Edge: UNC Wilmington
Duke has the size advantage
Duke's minutes-weighted height is 2.0 inches taller than UNC Wilmington's.
Edge: Duke
UNC Wilmington's bench scores more
UNC Wilmington's reserves average 41.8 points per game; Duke's 32.3.
Edge: UNC Wilmington
Bars show each team's percentile among all 345 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | UNC Wilmington | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Shooting | 55th | 51st |
| Rebounding | 48th | 61st |
| Ball security | 24th | 46th |
| Size & experience | 63rd | 94th |
Games between them in 2026–27, then every earlier meeting we have.
UNC Wilmington and Duke did not play each other this season.
Duke leads 1–0 since 2015–16.
No common opponents this season.