Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
2025–26 season
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
2%
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
98%
Duke
No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2025–26. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, the model picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Texas A&M-Corpus Christi and Duke, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Duke is the stronger team on paper
Duke outscored opponents by 40.4 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Texas A&M-Corpus Christi by -0.9.
Edge: Duke
Duke faced the tougher schedule
Duke's average opponent was 15.8 points per 100 possessions better than Texas A&M-Corpus Christi's.
Edge: Duke
Second chances for Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi grabs 31.7% of its misses (61st percentile); Duke secures 67.9% of opponents' misses (25th percentile).
Edge: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Texas A&M-Corpus Christi | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 25th | 99th |
| Defense | 77th | 100th |
| Shooting | 48th | 69th |
| Rebounding | 69th | 39th |
| Ball security | 15th | 65th |
| Schedule | 54th | 96th |
Games between them in 2025–26, then every earlier meeting we have.
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi and Duke did not play each other this season.
How each team fared against the 2 opponents they both played.
| Opponent | Texas A&M-Corpus Christi | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| KANKansas | L46–77away | W78–66neutral |
| SMUSMU | L58–69away | W82–75home |