Matchup Lab

Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.

Model win probability

Bracket Hero model

Neutral court · ratings from 659 games through Nov 11

13%

Texas A&M-Corpus Christi

87%

Duke

Predicted score: 63–80
Model spread: Duke −16.6
Fair moneyline: +673 / -673

Range of likely final margins. The solid line is the model's expected margin. Hover to read the chance of a win by any margin.

Sportsbook market

No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2026–27. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.

What decides it

The biggest statistical gaps between Texas A&M-Corpus Christi and Duke, quoted from their 2026–27 numbers. Opponent-adjusted efficiency and schedule strength stay hidden until both teams have played 8 games; until then they swing too much to mean anything.

Matchup Lab · Bracket Hero

Tale of the tape

Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.

Texas A&M-Corpus ChristiDuke

Efficiency

Efficiency margin: ——; Texas A&M-Corpus Christi ; Duke . Even.
Offensive efficiency: ——; Texas A&M-Corpus Christi ; Duke . Even.
Defensive efficiency: ——; Texas A&M-Corpus Christi ; Duke . Even.
Strength of schedule: ——; Texas A&M-Corpus Christi ; Duke . Even.
Pace: 67.273.5; Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 18th percentile; Duke 76th percentile. Even.

Shooting

Field goal %: 48.0%48.1%; Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 67th percentile; Duke 68th percentile. Even.
Three-point %: 27.7%30.1%; Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 17th percentile; Duke 29th percentile. Edge Duke.
Three-point rate: 27.5%40.3%; Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 1st percentile; Duke 45th percentile. Edge Duke.
Free throw %: 64.4%

Possessions

Offensive rebound %: 37.3%35.4%; Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 86th percentile; Duke 77th percentile. Edge Texas A&M-Corpus Christi.
Defensive rebound %: 73.6%67.7%; Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 85th percentile; Duke 44th percentile. Edge Texas A&M-Corpus Christi.
Turnover rate: 20.0%18.0%; Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 24th percentile; Duke 45th percentile. Edge Duke.
Assists per game

Defense

Opponent FG %: 40.4%36.3%; Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 58th percentile; Duke 86th percentile. Edge Duke.
Opponent 3P %: 40.0%26.4%; Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 7th percentile; Duke 82nd percentile. Edge Duke.
Steals per game: 7.711.0; Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 51st percentile; Duke 89th percentile. Edge Duke.
Blocks per game

Roster

Average height: 6′5.1″6′7.6″; Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 35th percentile; Duke 99th percentile. Edge Duke.
Program experience: 1.20 yrs1.89 yrs; Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 24th percentile; Duke 88th percentile. Edge Duke.
Bench points: 44.132.3; Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 95th percentile; Duke 71st percentile. Edge Texas A&M-Corpus Christi.

Profile

National percentile by category
Category	Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	Duke
Shooting	35th	52nd
Rebounding	85th	61st
Ball security	24th	45th
Size & experience	29th	93rd

National percentiles (100th is best). Hover a category to see what it averages.

Head to head

Games between them in 2026–27, then every earlier meeting we have.

Texas A&M-Corpus Christi and Duke did not play each other this season.

Matchup Lab

Model win probability

Sportsbook market

What decides it

Model win probability

Sportsbook market

What decides it

Tale of the tape

Efficiency

Shooting

Possessions

Defense

Roster

Profile

Head to head

Common opponents