Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 659 games through Nov 11
4%
Southern
96%
Duke
No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2026–27. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.
The biggest statistical gaps between Southern and Duke, quoted from their 2026–27 numbers. Opponent-adjusted efficiency and schedule strength stay hidden until both teams have played 8 games; until then they swing too much to mean anything.
Duke's hands vs. Southern's ball security
Southern turns it over on 31.0% of possessions (0th percentile); Duke averages 11.0 steals (89th percentile).
Edge: Duke
Duke has the size advantage
Duke's minutes-weighted height is 3.3 inches taller than Southern's.
Edge: Duke
Second chances for Duke
Duke grabs 35.4% of its misses (77th percentile); Southern secures 64.0% of opponents' misses (20th percentile).
Edge: Duke
Southern's bench scores more
Southern's reserves average 41.2 points per game; Duke's 32.3.
Edge: Southern
Duke has more continuity
Duke's minutes go to players averaging 1.89 seasons in the program; Southern's 1.16.
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Southern | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Shooting | 46th | 52nd |
| Rebounding | 35th | 61st |
| Ball security | 0th | 45th |
| Size & experience | 13th | 93rd |
Games between them in 2026–27, then every earlier meeting we have.
Southern and Duke did not play each other this season.
Duke leads 1–0 since 2005–06.
No common opponents this season.