Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
2025–26 season
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
5%
Sam Houston
95%
Duke
No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2025–26. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, the model picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Sam Houston and Duke, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Duke is the stronger team on paper
Duke outscored opponents by 40.4 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Sam Houston by 5.2.
Edge: Duke
Second chances for Sam Houston
Sam Houston grabs 33.9% of its misses (85th percentile); Duke secures 67.9% of opponents' misses (25th percentile).
Edge: Sam Houston
Duke faced the tougher schedule
Duke's average opponent was 14.8 points per 100 possessions better than Sam Houston's.
Edge: Duke
Duke's offense should find room
Duke's offense ranks in the 99th percentile; Sam Houston's defense in the 58th percentile.
Edge: Duke
Pace clash: Sam Houston runs, Duke slows it down
Sam Houston averages 71.1 possessions per 40 minutes; Duke 66.5. Whoever sets the tempo plays its game.
Style matchup
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Sam Houston | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 73rd | 99th |
| Defense | 58th | 100th |
| Shooting | 68th | 69th |
| Rebounding | 53rd | 39th |
| Ball security | 46th | 65th |
| Schedule | 60th | 96th |
Games between them in 2025–26, then every earlier meeting we have.
Sam Houston and Duke did not play each other this season.
How each team fared against the 1 opponent they both played.
| Opponent | Sam Houston | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| TTUTexas Tech | L77–98away | L81–82neutral |