Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
2025–26 season
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
3%
Robert Morris
97%
Duke
No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2025–26. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, the model picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Robert Morris and Duke, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Duke is the stronger team on paper
Duke outscored opponents by 40.4 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Robert Morris by 1.6.
Edge: Duke
Second chances for Robert Morris
Robert Morris grabs 34.6% of its misses (92nd percentile); Duke secures 67.9% of opponents' misses (25th percentile).
Edge: Robert Morris
Duke faced the tougher schedule
Duke's average opponent was 19.5 points per 100 possessions better than Robert Morris's.
Edge: Duke
Duke's offense should find room
Duke's offense ranks in the 99th percentile; Robert Morris's defense in the 52nd percentile.
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Robert Morris | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 62nd | 99th |
| Defense | 52nd | 100th |
| Shooting | 66th | 69th |
| Rebounding | 62nd | 39th |
| Ball security | 15th | 65th |
| Schedule | 30th | 96th |
Games between them in 2025–26, then every earlier meeting we have.
Robert Morris and Duke did not play each other this season.
Duke leads 1–0 since 2014–15.
No common opponents this season.