Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 659 games through Nov 11
13%
Penn State
87%
Duke
No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2026–27. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.
The biggest statistical gaps between Penn State and Duke, quoted from their 2026–27 numbers. Opponent-adjusted efficiency and schedule strength stay hidden until both teams have played 8 games; until then they swing too much to mean anything.
Second chances for Duke
Duke grabs 35.4% of its misses (77th percentile); Penn State secures 61.6% of opponents' misses (8th percentile).
Edge: Duke
Penn State is safer at the line late
Penn State shoots 81.6% on free throws; Duke 71.2%.
Edge: Penn State
Duke has more continuity
Duke's minutes go to players averaging 1.89 seasons in the program; Penn State's 1.27.
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Penn State | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Shooting | 58th | 52nd |
| Rebounding | 37th | 61st |
| Ball security | 45th | 45th |
| Size & experience | 65th | 93rd |
Games between them in 2026–27, then every earlier meeting we have.
Penn State and Duke did not play each other this season.
No common opponents this season.