Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
2025–26 season
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
10%
Oklahoma
90%
Duke
No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2025–26. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, the model picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Oklahoma and Duke, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Duke is the stronger team on paper
Duke outscored opponents by 40.4 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Oklahoma by 17.6.
Edge: Duke
Strength on strength: Oklahoma's offense vs. Duke's defense
Oklahoma scores 123.7 per 100 possessions (94th percentile); Duke allows 88.7 (100th percentile).
Even matchup
Second chances for Duke
Duke grabs 30.8% of its misses (53rd percentile); Oklahoma secures 66.0% of opponents' misses (7th percentile).
Edge: Duke
Second chances for Oklahoma
Oklahoma grabs 31.7% of its misses (61st percentile); Duke secures 67.9% of opponents' misses (25th percentile).
Edge: Oklahoma
Duke faced the tougher schedule
Duke's average opponent was 4.2 points per 100 possessions better than Oklahoma's.
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Oklahoma | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 94th | 99th |
| Defense | 68th | 100th |
| Shooting | 84th | 69th |
| Rebounding | 34th | 39th |
| Ball security | 94th | 65th |
| Schedule | 82nd | 96th |
Games between them in 2025–26, then every earlier meeting we have.
Oklahoma and Duke did not play each other this season.
How each team fared against the 4 opponents they both played.
| Opponent | Oklahoma | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| ARKArkansas | L79–83homeL79–82neutral | W80–71neutral |
| FLOFlorida | L79–96home | W67–66home |
| TEXTexas | L69–79homeW88–85away | W75–60neutral |
| WAKWake Forest | W86–68away | W90–69home |