Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
2025–26 season
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
3%
Northern Kentucky
97%
Duke
No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2025–26. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, the model picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Northern Kentucky and Duke, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Duke is the stronger team on paper
Duke outscored opponents by 40.4 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Northern Kentucky by -0.6.
Edge: Duke
Duke faced the tougher schedule
Duke's average opponent was 19.3 points per 100 possessions better than Northern Kentucky's.
Edge: Duke
Second chances for Northern Kentucky
Northern Kentucky grabs 33.6% of its misses (82nd percentile); Duke secures 67.9% of opponents' misses (25th percentile).
Edge: Northern Kentucky
Duke's offense should find room
Duke's offense ranks in the 99th percentile; Northern Kentucky's defense in the 43rd percentile.
Edge: Duke
Pace clash: Northern Kentucky runs, Duke slows it down
Northern Kentucky averages 71.0 possessions per 40 minutes; Duke 66.5. Whoever sets the tempo plays its game.
Style matchup
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Northern Kentucky | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 58th | 99th |
| Defense | 43rd | 100th |
| Shooting | 57th | 69th |
| Rebounding | 64th | 39th |
| Ball security | 46th | 65th |
| Schedule | 32nd | 96th |
Games between them in 2025–26, then every earlier meeting we have.
Northern Kentucky and Duke did not play each other this season.
No common opponents this season.