Matchup Lab

Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.

Model win probability

Bracket Hero model

Neutral court · ratings from 659 games through Nov 11

Northern Kentucky

93%

Duke

Predicted score: 69–91
Model spread: Duke −21.7
Fair moneyline: +1346 / -1346

Range of likely final margins. The solid line is the model's expected margin. Hover to read the chance of a win by any margin.

Sportsbook market

No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2026–27. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.

What decides it

The biggest statistical gaps between Northern Kentucky and Duke, quoted from their 2026–27 numbers. Opponent-adjusted efficiency and schedule strength stay hidden until both teams have played 8 games; until then they swing too much to mean anything.

Matchup Lab · Bracket Hero

Tale of the tape

Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.

Northern KentuckyDuke

Efficiency

Efficiency margin: ——; Northern Kentucky ; Duke . Even.
Offensive efficiency: ——; Northern Kentucky ; Duke . Even.
Defensive efficiency: ——; Northern Kentucky ; Duke . Even.
Strength of schedule: ——; Northern Kentucky ; Duke . Even.
Pace: 78.373.5; Northern Kentucky 94th percentile; Duke 76th percentile. Even.

Shooting

Field goal %: 43.9%48.1%; Northern Kentucky 37th percentile; Duke 68th percentile. Edge Duke.
Three-point %: 30.1%30.1%; Northern Kentucky 29th percentile; Duke 29th percentile. Even.
Three-point rate: 35.0%40.3%; Northern Kentucky 19th percentile; Duke 45th percentile. Edge Duke.
Free throw %: 77.6%

Possessions

Offensive rebound %: 32.4%35.4%; Northern Kentucky 58th percentile; Duke 77th percentile. Edge Duke.
Defensive rebound %: 67.1%67.7%; Northern Kentucky 39th percentile; Duke 44th percentile. Even.
Turnover rate: 23.0%18.0%; Northern Kentucky 6th percentile; Duke 45th percentile. Edge Duke.
Assists per game

Defense

Opponent FG %: 51.4%36.3%; Northern Kentucky 4th percentile; Duke 86th percentile. Edge Duke.
Opponent 3P %: 40.5%26.4%; Northern Kentucky 6th percentile; Duke 82nd percentile. Edge Duke.
Steals per game: 6.311.0; Northern Kentucky 27th percentile; Duke 89th percentile. Edge Duke.
Blocks per game: 3.0

Roster

Average height: 6′5.4″6′7.6″; Northern Kentucky 50th percentile; Duke 99th percentile. Edge Duke.
Program experience: 1.33 yrs1.89 yrs; Northern Kentucky 39th percentile; Duke 88th percentile. Edge Duke.
Bench points: 12.832.3; Northern Kentucky 3rd percentile; Duke 71st percentile. Edge Duke.

Profile

National percentile by category
Category	Northern Kentucky	Duke
Shooting	52nd	52nd
Rebounding	48th	61st
Ball security	6th	45th
Size & experience	44th	93rd

National percentiles (100th is best). Hover a category to see what it averages.

Head to head

Games between them in 2026–27, then every earlier meeting we have.

Northern Kentucky and Duke did not play each other this season.

Matchup Lab

Model win probability

Sportsbook market

What decides it

Model win probability

Sportsbook market

What decides it

Tale of the tape

Efficiency

Shooting

Possessions

Defense

Roster

Profile

Head to head

Common opponents