Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
2025–26 season
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
<1%
North Carolina Central
>99%
Duke
No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2025–26. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, the model picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between North Carolina Central and Duke, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Duke is the stronger team on paper
Duke outscored opponents by 40.4 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; North Carolina Central by -21.2.
Edge: Duke
Duke's offense should find room
Duke's offense ranks in the 99th percentile; North Carolina Central's defense in the 4th percentile.
Edge: Duke
Duke faced the tougher schedule
Duke's average opponent was 25.9 points per 100 possessions better than North Carolina Central's.
Edge: Duke
Second chances for North Carolina Central
North Carolina Central grabs 34.3% of its misses (88th percentile); Duke secures 67.9% of opponents' misses (25th percentile).
Edge: North Carolina Central
Second chances for Duke
Duke grabs 30.8% of its misses (53rd percentile); North Carolina Central secures 64.9% of opponents' misses (2nd percentile).
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | North Carolina Central | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 13th | 99th |
| Defense | 4th | 100th |
| Shooting | 37th | 69th |
| Rebounding | 45th | 39th |
| Ball security | 28th | 65th |
| Schedule | 3rd | 96th |
Games between them in 2025–26, then every earlier meeting we have.
North Carolina Central and Duke did not play each other this season.
How each team fared against the 4 opponents they both played.
| Opponent | North Carolina Central | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| HOWHoward | L69–83homeL67–100awayL63–70neutral | W93–56home |
| NCSTNC State | L66–114away | W93–64away |
| UNCNorth Carolina | L53–97away | L68–71awayW76–61home |
| VIRVirginia | L62–81away | W77–51homeW74–70neutral |