Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
2025–26 season
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
<1%
North Carolina A&T
>99%
Duke
No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2025–26. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, the model picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between North Carolina A&T and Duke, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Duke is the stronger team on paper
Duke outscored opponents by 40.4 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; North Carolina A&T by -10.2.
Edge: Duke
Duke's offense should find room
Duke's offense ranks in the 99th percentile; North Carolina A&T's defense in the 20th percentile.
Edge: Duke
Duke faced the tougher schedule
Duke's average opponent was 19.9 points per 100 possessions better than North Carolina A&T's.
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | North Carolina A&T | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 34th | 99th |
| Defense | 20th | 100th |
| Shooting | 41st | 69th |
| Rebounding | 35th | 39th |
| Ball security | 15th | 65th |
| Schedule | 28th | 96th |
Games between them in 2025–26, then every earlier meeting we have.
North Carolina A&T and Duke did not play each other this season.
How each team fared against the 1 opponent they both played.
| Opponent | North Carolina A&T | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| HOWHoward | L69–73away | W93–56home |