Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
2025–26 season
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
<1%
Niagara
>99%
Duke
Consensus closing line for their meeting on Nov 21 (at Duke), median of 2 books.
For that game the model gave Niagara <1% and a 39.5-point deficit; the market spread implied <1%. Duke won 100–42.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, the model picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Niagara and Duke, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Duke is the stronger team on paper
Duke outscored opponents by 40.4 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Niagara by -20.6.
Edge: Duke
Duke's offense should find room
Duke's offense ranks in the 99th percentile; Niagara's defense in the 9th percentile.
Edge: Duke
Duke faced the tougher schedule
Duke's average opponent was 23.2 points per 100 possessions better than Niagara's.
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Niagara | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 8th | 99th |
| Defense | 9th | 100th |
| Shooting | 41st | 69th |
| Rebounding | 34th | 39th |
| Ball security | 15th | 65th |
| Schedule | 13th | 96th |
Games between them in 2025–26, then every earlier meeting we have.
Nov 21, 2025· At Duke
DUKEDuke won100–42
Closing line: Niagara +39.75(did not cover)
How each team fared against the 2 opponents they both played.
| Opponent | Niagara | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| HOWHoward | L70–80neutral | W93–56home |
| SIESiena | L54–83awayL79–82home | W71–65neutral |