Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 659 games through Nov 11
3%
Niagara
97%
Duke
No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2026–27. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.
The biggest statistical gaps between Niagara and Duke, quoted from their 2026–27 numbers. Opponent-adjusted efficiency and schedule strength stay hidden until both teams have played 8 games; until then they swing too much to mean anything.
Duke's hands vs. Niagara's ball security
Niagara turns it over on 27.0% of possessions (2nd percentile); Duke averages 11.0 steals (89th percentile).
Edge: Duke
Duke has the size advantage
Duke's minutes-weighted height is 3.1 inches taller than Niagara's.
Edge: Duke
Duke's bench scores more
Duke's reserves average 32.3 points per game; Niagara's 17.5.
Edge: Duke
Duke is safer at the line late
Duke shoots 71.2% on free throws; Niagara 61.8%.
Edge: Duke
Duke has more continuity
Duke's minutes go to players averaging 1.89 seasons in the program; Niagara's 1.09.
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 345 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Niagara | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Shooting | 30th | 51st |
| Rebounding | 32nd | 61st |
| Ball security | 2nd | 46th |
| Size & experience | 12th | 94th |
Games between them in 2026–27, then every earlier meeting we have.
Niagara and Duke did not play each other this season.
Duke leads 1–0 since 2025–26.
No common opponents this season.