Matchup Lab

Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.

Model win probability

Bracket Hero model

Neutral court · ratings from 659 games through Nov 11

New Mexico State

93%

Duke

Predicted score: 64–86
Model spread: Duke −21.5
Fair moneyline: +1307 / -1307

Range of likely final margins. The solid line is the model's expected margin. Hover to read the chance of a win by any margin.

Sportsbook market

No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2026–27. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.

What decides it

The biggest statistical gaps between New Mexico State and Duke, quoted from their 2026–27 numbers. Opponent-adjusted efficiency and schedule strength stay hidden until both teams have played 8 games; until then they swing too much to mean anything.

Matchup Lab · Bracket Hero

Tale of the tape

Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.

New Mexico StateDuke

Efficiency

Efficiency margin: ——; New Mexico State ; Duke . Even.
Offensive efficiency: ——; New Mexico State ; Duke . Even.
Defensive efficiency: ——; New Mexico State ; Duke . Even.
Strength of schedule: ——; New Mexico State ; Duke . Even.
Pace: 69.373.5; New Mexico State 33rd percentile; Duke 76th percentile. Even.

Shooting

Field goal %: 42.5%48.1%; New Mexico State 28th percentile; Duke 68th percentile. Edge Duke.
Three-point %: 31.4%30.1%; New Mexico State 38th percentile; Duke 29th percentile. Edge New Mexico State.
Three-point rate: 33.0%40.3%; New Mexico State 11th percentile; Duke 45th percentile. Edge Duke.
Free throw %: 87.0%

Possessions

Offensive rebound %: 30.2%35.4%; New Mexico State 40th percentile; Duke 77th percentile. Edge Duke.
Defensive rebound %: 60.5%67.7%; New Mexico State 7th percentile; Duke 44th percentile. Edge Duke.
Turnover rate: 21.0%18.0%; New Mexico State 16th percentile; Duke 45th percentile. Edge Duke.
Assists per game

Defense

Opponent FG %: 47.7%36.3%; New Mexico State 15th percentile; Duke 86th percentile. Edge Duke.
Opponent 3P %: 38.3%26.4%; New Mexico State 10th percentile; Duke 82nd percentile. Edge Duke.
Steals per game: 5.511.0; New Mexico State 15th percentile; Duke 89th percentile. Edge Duke.
Blocks per game: 2.0

Roster

Average height: 6′4.9″6′7.6″; New Mexico State 23rd percentile; Duke 99th percentile. Edge Duke.
Program experience: 1.58 yrs1.89 yrs; New Mexico State 65th percentile; Duke 88th percentile. Edge Duke.
Bench points: 21.532.3; New Mexico State 29th percentile; Duke 71st percentile. Edge Duke.

Profile

National percentile by category
Category	New Mexico State	Duke
Shooting	55th	52nd
Rebounding	24th	61st
Ball security	16th	45th
Size & experience	44th	93rd

National percentiles (100th is best). Hover a category to see what it averages.

Head to head

Games between them in 2026–27, then every earlier meeting we have.

New Mexico State and Duke did not play each other this season.

Matchup Lab

Model win probability

Sportsbook market

What decides it

Model win probability

Sportsbook market

What decides it

Tale of the tape

Efficiency

Shooting

Possessions

Defense

Roster

Profile

Head to head

Common opponents