Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 659 games through Nov 11
5%
Mount St. Mary's
95%
Duke
No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2026–27. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.
The biggest statistical gaps between Mount St. Mary's and Duke, quoted from their 2026–27 numbers. Opponent-adjusted efficiency and schedule strength stay hidden until both teams have played 8 games; until then they swing too much to mean anything.
Duke's bench scores more
Duke's reserves average 32.3 points per game; Mount St. Mary's's 12.5.
Edge: Duke
Duke is safer at the line late
Duke shoots 71.2% on free throws; Mount St. Mary's 59.0%.
Edge: Duke
Duke's hands vs. Mount St. Mary's's ball security
Mount St. Mary's turns it over on 19.0% of possessions (34th percentile); Duke averages 11.0 steals (89th percentile).
Edge: Duke
Duke has the size advantage
Duke's minutes-weighted height is 2.8 inches taller than Mount St. Mary's's.
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Mount St. Mary's | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Shooting | 4th | 52nd |
| Rebounding | 39th | 61st |
| Ball security | 34th | 45th |
| Size & experience | 42nd | 93rd |
Games between them in 2026–27, then every earlier meeting we have.
Mount St. Mary's and Duke did not play each other this season.
Duke leads 1–0 since 2024–25.
No common opponents this season.