Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
2025–26 season
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
1%
Morehead State
99%
Duke
No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2025–26. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, the model picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Morehead State and Duke, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Duke is the stronger team on paper
Duke outscored opponents by 40.4 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Morehead State by -10.9.
Edge: Duke
Duke's offense should find room
Duke's offense ranks in the 99th percentile; Morehead State's defense in the 14th percentile.
Edge: Duke
Duke faced the tougher schedule
Duke's average opponent was 22.8 points per 100 possessions better than Morehead State's.
Edge: Duke
Second chances for Morehead State
Morehead State grabs 34.1% of its misses (86th percentile); Duke secures 67.9% of opponents' misses (25th percentile).
Edge: Morehead State
Second chances for Duke
Duke grabs 30.8% of its misses (53rd percentile); Morehead State secures 63.5% of opponents' misses (0th percentile).
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Morehead State | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 39th | 99th |
| Defense | 14th | 100th |
| Shooting | 57th | 69th |
| Rebounding | 43rd | 39th |
| Ball security | 46th | 65th |
| Schedule | 16th | 96th |
Games between them in 2025–26, then every earlier meeting we have.
Morehead State and Duke did not play each other this season.
How each team fared against the 2 opponents they both played.
| Opponent | Morehead State | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| CLEClemson | L56–83away | W67–54homeW73–61neutral |
| WAKWake Forest | L65–81away | W90–69home |