Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
2025–26 season
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
<1%
Manhattan
>99%
Duke
No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2025–26. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, the model picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Manhattan and Duke, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Duke is the stronger team on paper
Duke outscored opponents by 40.4 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Manhattan by -17.7.
Edge: Duke
Duke's offense should find room
Duke's offense ranks in the 99th percentile; Manhattan's defense in the 4th percentile.
Edge: Duke
Duke faced the tougher schedule
Duke's average opponent was 23.6 points per 100 possessions better than Manhattan's.
Edge: Duke
Second chances for Duke
Duke grabs 30.8% of its misses (53rd percentile); Manhattan secures 66.4% of opponents' misses (10th percentile).
Edge: Duke
Second chances for Manhattan
Manhattan grabs 32.1% of its misses (66th percentile); Duke secures 67.9% of opponents' misses (25th percentile).
Edge: Manhattan
Manhattan is safer at the line late
Manhattan shoots 79.5% on free throws; Duke 72.9%.
Edge: Manhattan
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Manhattan | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 25th | 99th |
| Defense | 4th | 100th |
| Shooting | 47th | 69th |
| Rebounding | 38th | 39th |
| Ball security | 65th | 65th |
| Schedule | 11th | 96th |
Games between them in 2025–26, then every earlier meeting we have.
Manhattan and Duke did not play each other this season.
How each team fared against the 3 opponents they both played.
| Opponent | Manhattan | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| ARMYArmy | L78–81away | W114–59away |
| NIANiagara | W79–70homeW76–69away | W100–42home |
| SIESiena | L59–74home | W71–65neutral |