Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
2025–26 season
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
<1%
Little Rock
>99%
Duke
No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2025–26. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, the model picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Little Rock and Duke, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Duke is the stronger team on paper
Duke outscored opponents by 40.4 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Little Rock by -14.3.
Edge: Duke
Duke's offense should find room
Duke's offense ranks in the 99th percentile; Little Rock's defense in the 17th percentile.
Edge: Duke
Duke faced the tougher schedule
Duke's average opponent was 22.8 points per 100 possessions better than Little Rock's.
Edge: Duke
Second chances for Little Rock
Little Rock grabs 33.5% of its misses (82nd percentile); Duke secures 67.9% of opponents' misses (25th percentile).
Edge: Little Rock
Second chances for Duke
Duke grabs 30.8% of its misses (53rd percentile); Little Rock secures 65.4% of opponents' misses (2nd percentile).
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Little Rock | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 18th | 99th |
| Defense | 17th | 100th |
| Shooting | 42nd | 69th |
| Rebounding | 42nd | 39th |
| Ball security | 15th | 65th |
| Schedule | 16th | 96th |
Games between them in 2025–26, then every earlier meeting we have.
Little Rock and Duke did not play each other this season.
No common opponents this season.