Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
2025–26 season
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
2%
Lipscomb
98%
Duke
Consensus closing line for their meeting on Dec 16 (at Duke), median of 2 books.
For that game the model gave Lipscomb 1% and a 28.4-point deficit; the market spread implied <1%. Duke won 97–73.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, the model picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Lipscomb and Duke, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Duke is the stronger team on paper
Duke outscored opponents by 40.4 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Lipscomb by -2.6.
Edge: Duke
Duke faced the tougher schedule
Duke's average opponent was 19.6 points per 100 possessions better than Lipscomb's.
Edge: Duke
Duke's offense should find room
Duke's offense ranks in the 99th percentile; Lipscomb's defense in the 53rd percentile.
Edge: Duke
Pace clash: Lipscomb runs, Duke slows it down
Lipscomb averages 70.8 possessions per 40 minutes; Duke 66.5. Whoever sets the tempo plays its game.
Style matchup
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Lipscomb | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 40th | 99th |
| Defense | 53rd | 100th |
| Shooting | 78th | 69th |
| Rebounding | 41st | 39th |
| Ball security | 65th | 65th |
| Schedule | 29th | 96th |
Games between them in 2025–26, then every earlier meeting we have.
Dec 16, 2025· At Duke
DUKEDuke won97–73
Closing line: Lipscomb +32.75(covered)
How each team fared against the 1 opponent they both played.
| Opponent | Lipscomb | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| W CWestern Carolina | W83–62home | W95–54home |