Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 659 games through Nov 11
7%
Lafayette
93%
Duke
No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2026–27. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.
The biggest statistical gaps between Lafayette and Duke, quoted from their 2026–27 numbers. Opponent-adjusted efficiency and schedule strength stay hidden until both teams have played 8 games; until then they swing too much to mean anything.
Pace clash: Duke runs, Lafayette slows it down
Duke averages 73.5 possessions per 40 minutes; Lafayette 56.0. Whoever sets the tempo plays its game.
Style matchup
Duke's hands vs. Lafayette's ball security
Lafayette turns it over on 29.0% of possessions (1st percentile); Duke averages 11.0 steals (89th percentile).
Edge: Duke
Duke is safer at the line late
Duke shoots 71.2% on free throws; Lafayette 57.1%.
Edge: Duke
Duke's bench scores more
Duke's reserves average 32.3 points per game; Lafayette's 18.2.
Edge: Duke
Duke has the size advantage
Duke's minutes-weighted height is 2.2 inches taller than Lafayette's.
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Lafayette | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Shooting | 32nd | 52nd |
| Rebounding | 57th | 61st |
| Ball security | 1st | 45th |
| Size & experience | 58th | 93rd |
Games between them in 2026–27, then every earlier meeting we have.
Lafayette and Duke did not play each other this season.
Duke leads 1–0 since 2021–22.
No common opponents this season.