Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
2025–26 season
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
1%
Indiana State
99%
Duke
Consensus closing line for their meeting on Nov 14 (at Duke), median of 2 books.
For that game the model gave Indiana State <1% and a 30.3-point deficit; the market spread implied <1%. Duke won 100–62.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, the model picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Indiana State and Duke, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Duke is the stronger team on paper
Duke outscored opponents by 40.4 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Indiana State by -1.5.
Edge: Duke
Duke's offense should find room
Duke's offense ranks in the 99th percentile; Indiana State's defense in the 58th percentile.
Edge: Duke
Duke faced the tougher schedule
Duke's average opponent was 13.6 points per 100 possessions better than Indiana State's.
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Indiana State | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 42nd | 99th |
| Defense | 58th | 100th |
| Shooting | 34th | 69th |
| Rebounding | 25th | 39th |
| Ball security | 6th | 65th |
| Schedule | 64th | 96th |
Games between them in 2025–26, then every earlier meeting we have.
Nov 14, 2025· At Duke
DUKEDuke won100–62
Closing line: Indiana State +38(push)
No common opponents this season.