Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
2025–26 season
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
1%
Georgia Tech
99%
Duke
Consensus closing line for their meeting on Dec 31 (at Duke), median of 2 books.
For that game the model gave Georgia Tech <1% and a 30.3-point deficit; the market spread implied 1%. Duke won 85–79.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, the model picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Georgia Tech and Duke, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Duke is the stronger team on paper
Duke outscored opponents by 40.4 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Georgia Tech by 1.1.
Edge: Duke
Duke faced the tougher schedule
Duke's average opponent was 7.5 points per 100 possessions better than Georgia Tech's.
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Georgia Tech | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 46th | 99th |
| Defense | 67th | 100th |
| Shooting | 46th | 69th |
| Rebounding | 27th | 39th |
| Ball security | 15th | 65th |
| Schedule | 78th | 96th |
Games between them in 2025–26, then every earlier meeting we have.
Dec 31, 2025· At Duke
DUKEDuke won85–79
Closing line: Georgia Tech +27.5(covered)
Duke leads 8–2 since 2018–19.
How each team fared against the 14 opponents they both played.
| Opponent | Georgia Tech | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| BOSBoston College | W65–53home | W67–49home |
| CALCalifornia | L85–90awayL65–76home | W71–56away |
| CLEClemson | L63–77homeL76–79away | W67–54homeW73–61neutral |
| FLOFlorida State | L71–80home | W91–87awayW80–79neutral |
| LOULouisville | L70–87away | W84–73awayW83–52home |
| NCSTNC State | W78–74away | W93–64away |
| UNCNorth Carolina | L75–91home | L68–71awayW76–61home |
| NOTNotre Dame | L74–89away | W100–56away |
| PITTPittsburgh | L66–89home | W70–54away |
| STAStanford | L72–95away | W80–50away |
| SYRSyracuse | L72–82home | W101–64home |
| VIRVirginia | L68–94home | W77–51homeW74–70neutral |
| VIRVirginia Tech | L65–71away | W72–58away |
| WAKWake Forest | L67–83home | W90–69home |