Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
2025–26 season
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
<1%
Gardner-Webb
>99%
Duke
No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2025–26. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, the model picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Gardner-Webb and Duke, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Duke is the stronger team on paper
Duke outscored opponents by 40.4 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Gardner-Webb by -26.8.
Edge: Duke
Duke's offense should find room
Duke's offense ranks in the 99th percentile; Gardner-Webb's defense in the 3rd percentile.
Edge: Duke
Duke faced the tougher schedule
Duke's average opponent was 15.9 points per 100 possessions better than Gardner-Webb's.
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Gardner-Webb | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 4th | 99th |
| Defense | 3rd | 100th |
| Shooting | 14th | 69th |
| Rebounding | 34th | 39th |
| Ball security | 6th | 65th |
| Schedule | 52nd | 96th |
Games between them in 2025–26, then every earlier meeting we have.
Gardner-Webb and Duke did not play each other this season.
Duke leads 1–0 since 2021–22.
How each team fared against the 1 opponent they both played.
| Opponent | Gardner-Webb | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| CLEClemson | L59–97away | W67–54homeW73–61neutral |