Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 659 games through Nov 11
2%
Gardner-Webb
98%
Duke
No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2026–27. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.
The biggest statistical gaps between Gardner-Webb and Duke, quoted from their 2026–27 numbers. Opponent-adjusted efficiency and schedule strength stay hidden until both teams have played 8 games; until then they swing too much to mean anything.
Duke's hands vs. Gardner-Webb's ball security
Gardner-Webb turns it over on 23.0% of possessions (6th percentile); Duke averages 11.0 steals (89th percentile).
Edge: Duke
Duke has the size advantage
Duke's minutes-weighted height is 2.6 inches taller than Gardner-Webb's.
Edge: Duke
Duke's bench scores more
Duke's reserves average 32.3 points per game; Gardner-Webb's 21.5.
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Gardner-Webb | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Shooting | 31st | 52nd |
| Rebounding | 69th | 61st |
| Ball security | 6th | 45th |
| Size & experience | 37th | 93rd |
Games between them in 2026–27, then every earlier meeting we have.
Gardner-Webb and Duke did not play each other this season.
Duke leads 1–0 since 2021–22.
No common opponents this season.