Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 659 games through Nov 11
10%
Florida Gulf Coast
90%
Duke
No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2026–27. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.
The biggest statistical gaps between Florida Gulf Coast and Duke, quoted from their 2026–27 numbers. Opponent-adjusted efficiency and schedule strength stay hidden until both teams have played 8 games; until then they swing too much to mean anything.
Duke's hands vs. Florida Gulf Coast's ball security
Florida Gulf Coast turns it over on 20.0% of possessions (24th percentile); Duke averages 11.0 steals (89th percentile).
Edge: Duke
Duke has the size advantage
Duke's minutes-weighted height is 2.7 inches taller than Florida Gulf Coast's.
Edge: Duke
Second chances for Duke
Duke grabs 35.4% of its misses (77th percentile); Florida Gulf Coast secures 66.3% of opponents' misses (30th percentile).
Edge: Duke
Florida Gulf Coast is safer at the line late
Florida Gulf Coast shoots 80.4% on free throws; Duke 71.2%.
Edge: Florida Gulf Coast
Duke's bench scores more
Duke's reserves average 32.3 points per game; Florida Gulf Coast's 22.7.
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Florida Gulf Coast | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Shooting | 80th | 52nd |
| Rebounding | 24th | 61st |
| Ball security | 24th | 45th |
| Size & experience | 50th | 93rd |
Games between them in 2026–27, then every earlier meeting we have.
Florida Gulf Coast and Duke did not play each other this season.
No common opponents this season.