Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
2025–26 season
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
<1%
Florida A&M
>99%
Duke
No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2025–26. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, the model picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Florida A&M and Duke, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Duke is the stronger team on paper
Duke outscored opponents by 40.4 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Florida A&M by -16.0.
Edge: Duke
Duke faced the tougher schedule
Duke's average opponent was 25.1 points per 100 possessions better than Florida A&M's.
Edge: Duke
Duke's offense should find room
Duke's offense ranks in the 99th percentile; Florida A&M's defense in the 39th percentile.
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Florida A&M | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 4th | 99th |
| Defense | 39th | 100th |
| Shooting | 26th | 69th |
| Rebounding | 56th | 39th |
| Ball security | 1st | 65th |
| Schedule | 5th | 96th |
Games between them in 2025–26, then every earlier meeting we have.
Florida A&M and Duke did not play each other this season.
How each team fared against the 2 opponents they both played.
| Opponent | Florida A&M | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| GEOGeorgia Tech | L65–89away | W85–79home |
| TCUTCU | L56–80away | W81–58neutral |