Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 659 games through Nov 11
14%
Drake
86%
Duke
No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2026–27. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.
The biggest statistical gaps between Drake and Duke, quoted from their 2026–27 numbers. Opponent-adjusted efficiency and schedule strength stay hidden until both teams have played 8 games; until then they swing too much to mean anything.
Duke has the size advantage
Duke's minutes-weighted height is 3.7 inches taller than Drake's.
Edge: Duke
Duke is safer at the line late
Duke shoots 71.2% on free throws; Drake 57.9%.
Edge: Duke
Duke's hands vs. Drake's ball security
Drake turns it over on 19.0% of possessions (34th percentile); Duke averages 11.0 steals (89th percentile).
Edge: Duke
Second chances for Drake
Drake grabs 40.2% of its misses (95th percentile); Duke secures 67.7% of opponents' misses (44th percentile).
Edge: Drake
Bars show each team's percentile among all 345 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Drake | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Shooting | 46th | 51st |
| Rebounding | 83rd | 61st |
| Ball security | 34th | 46th |
| Size & experience | 46th | 94th |
Games between them in 2026–27, then every earlier meeting we have.
Drake and Duke did not play each other this season.
No common opponents this season.