Matchup Lab

Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.

Model win probability

Bracket Hero model

Neutral court · ratings from 659 games through Nov 11

Delaware State

95%

Duke

Predicted score: 58–82
Model spread: Duke −24.4
Fair moneyline: +1970 / -1970

Range of likely final margins. The solid line is the model's expected margin. Hover to read the chance of a win by any margin.

Sportsbook market

No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2026–27. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.

What decides it

The biggest statistical gaps between Delaware State and Duke, quoted from their 2026–27 numbers. Opponent-adjusted efficiency and schedule strength stay hidden until both teams have played 8 games; until then they swing too much to mean anything.

Matchup Lab · Bracket Hero

Tale of the tape

Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.

Delaware StateDuke

Efficiency

Efficiency margin: ——; Delaware State ; Duke . Even.
Offensive efficiency: ——; Delaware State ; Duke . Even.
Defensive efficiency: ——; Delaware State ; Duke . Even.
Strength of schedule: ——; Delaware State ; Duke . Even.
Pace: 68.773.5; Delaware State 28th percentile; Duke 76th percentile. Even.

Shooting

Field goal %: 51.7%48.1%; Delaware State 88th percentile; Duke 68th percentile. Edge Delaware State.
Three-point %: 40.0%30.1%; Delaware State 87th percentile; Duke 29th percentile. Edge Delaware State.
Three-point rate: 34.9%40.3%; Delaware State 18th percentile; Duke 45th percentile. Edge Duke.
Free throw %: 64.7%

Possessions

Offensive rebound %: 23.5%35.4%; Delaware State 7th percentile; Duke 77th percentile. Edge Duke.
Defensive rebound %: 64.7%67.7%; Delaware State 23rd percentile; Duke 44th percentile. Edge Duke.
Turnover rate: 20.0%18.0%; Delaware State 24th percentile; Duke 45th percentile. Edge Duke.
Assists per game

Defense

Opponent FG %: 39.9%36.3%; Delaware State 62nd percentile; Duke 86th percentile. Edge Duke.
Opponent 3P %: 31.1%26.4%; Delaware State 50th percentile; Duke 82nd percentile. Edge Duke.
Steals per game: 10.711.0; Delaware State 87th percentile; Duke 89th percentile. Even.
Blocks per game: 0.7

Roster

Average height: 6′5.5″6′7.6″; Delaware State 54th percentile; Duke 99th percentile. Edge Duke.
Program experience: 1.26 yrs1.89 yrs; Delaware State 32nd percentile; Duke 88th percentile. Edge Duke.
Bench points: 24.932.3; Delaware State 44th percentile; Duke 71st percentile. Edge Duke.

Profile

National percentile by category
Category	Delaware State	Duke
Shooting	66th	52nd
Rebounding	15th	61st
Ball security	24th	45th
Size & experience	43rd	93rd

National percentiles (100th is best). Hover a category to see what it averages.

Head to head

Games between them in 2026–27, then every earlier meeting we have.

Delaware State and Duke did not play each other this season.

Earlier meetings

Duke leads 1–0 since 2004–05.

Mar 2005DUKEDuke 57–46NCAA Round of 64

Matchup Lab

Model win probability

Sportsbook market

What decides it

Model win probability

Sportsbook market

What decides it

Tale of the tape

Efficiency

Shooting

Possessions

Defense

Roster

Profile

Head to head

Earlier meetings

Common opponents