Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
2025–26 season
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
6%
Dayton
94%
Duke
No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2025–26. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, the model picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Dayton and Duke, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Duke is the stronger team on paper
Duke outscored opponents by 40.4 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Dayton by 12.3.
Edge: Duke
Strength on strength: Duke's offense vs. Dayton's defense
Duke scores 129.2 per 100 possessions (99th percentile); Dayton allows 99.0 (92nd percentile).
Even matchup
Duke faced the tougher schedule
Duke's average opponent was 9.3 points per 100 possessions better than Dayton's.
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Dayton | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 64th | 99th |
| Defense | 92nd | 100th |
| Shooting | 57th | 69th |
| Rebounding | 45th | 39th |
| Ball security | 46th | 65th |
| Schedule | 75th | 96th |
Games between them in 2025–26, then every earlier meeting we have.
Dayton and Duke did not play each other this season.
How each team fared against the 2 opponents they both played.
| Opponent | Dayton | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| FLOFlorida State | W97–69home | W91–87awayW80–79neutral |
| VIRVirginia | L73–86neutral | W77–51homeW74–70neutral |