Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 659 games through Nov 11
13%
Dayton
87%
Duke
No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2026–27. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.
The biggest statistical gaps between Dayton and Duke, quoted from their 2026–27 numbers. Opponent-adjusted efficiency and schedule strength stay hidden until both teams have played 8 games; until then they swing too much to mean anything.
Duke's hands vs. Dayton's ball security
Dayton turns it over on 19.0% of possessions (34th percentile); Duke averages 11.0 steals (89th percentile).
Edge: Duke
Second chances for Duke
Duke grabs 35.4% of its misses (77th percentile); Dayton secures 64.8% of opponents' misses (24th percentile).
Edge: Duke
Duke has the size advantage
Duke's minutes-weighted height is 1.5 inches taller than Dayton's.
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Dayton | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Shooting | 58th | 52nd |
| Rebounding | 32nd | 61st |
| Ball security | 34th | 45th |
| Size & experience | 68th | 93rd |
Games between them in 2026–27, then every earlier meeting we have.
Dayton and Duke did not play each other this season.
No common opponents this season.