Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 659 games through Nov 11
6%
Coastal Carolina
94%
Duke
Consensus closing line for their meeting on Nov 5 (at Duke), median of 2 books.
For that game the model gave Coastal Carolina 3% and a 28.3-point deficit; the market spread implied <1%. Duke won 113–52.
The biggest statistical gaps between Coastal Carolina and Duke, quoted from their 2026–27 numbers. Opponent-adjusted efficiency and schedule strength stay hidden until both teams have played 8 games; until then they swing too much to mean anything.
Duke's hands vs. Coastal Carolina's ball security
Coastal Carolina turns it over on 20.0% of possessions (24th percentile); Duke averages 11.0 steals (89th percentile).
Edge: Duke
Duke has the size advantage
Duke's minutes-weighted height is 2.4 inches taller than Coastal Carolina's.
Edge: Duke
Duke is safer at the line late
Duke shoots 71.2% on free throws; Coastal Carolina 62.2%.
Edge: Duke
Duke has more continuity
Duke's minutes go to players averaging 1.89 seasons in the program; Coastal Carolina's 1.28.
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Coastal Carolina | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Shooting | 11th | 52nd |
| Rebounding | 65th | 61st |
| Ball security | 24th | 45th |
| Size & experience | 35th | 93rd |
Games between them in 2026–27, then every earlier meeting we have.
Nov 5, 2026· At Duke
DUKEDuke won113–52
Closing line: Coastal Carolina +40.75(did not cover)
No common opponents this season.