Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 659 games through Nov 11
12%
Charlotte
88%
Duke
No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2026–27. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.
The biggest statistical gaps between Charlotte and Duke, quoted from their 2026–27 numbers. Opponent-adjusted efficiency and schedule strength stay hidden until both teams have played 8 games; until then they swing too much to mean anything.
Duke's hands vs. Charlotte's ball security
Charlotte turns it over on 22.0% of possessions (10th percentile); Duke averages 11.0 steals (89th percentile).
Edge: Duke
Pace clash: Duke runs, Charlotte slows it down
Duke averages 73.5 possessions per 40 minutes; Charlotte 66.0. Whoever sets the tempo plays its game.
Style matchup
Duke has more continuity
Duke's minutes go to players averaging 1.89 seasons in the program; Charlotte's 1.14.
Edge: Duke
Duke has the size advantage
Duke's minutes-weighted height is 1.0 inches taller than Charlotte's.
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Charlotte | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Shooting | 63rd | 52nd |
| Rebounding | 37th | 61st |
| Ball security | 10th | 45th |
| Size & experience | 54th | 93rd |
Games between them in 2026–27, then every earlier meeting we have.
Charlotte and Duke did not play each other this season.
Duke leads 1–0 since 2023–24.
No common opponents this season.