Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
2025–26 season
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
6%
California
94%
Duke
Consensus closing line for their meeting on Jan 14 (at California), median of 2 books.
For that game the model gave California 12% and a 13.5-point deficit; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 13%. Duke won 71–56.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, the model picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between California and Duke, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Duke is the stronger team on paper
Duke outscored opponents by 40.4 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; California by 11.9.
Edge: Duke
Duke faced the tougher schedule
Duke's average opponent was 6.9 points per 100 possessions better than California's.
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | California | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 75th | 99th |
| Defense | 83rd | 100th |
| Shooting | 76th | 69th |
| Rebounding | 33rd | 39th |
| Ball security | 82nd | 65th |
| Schedule | 78th | 96th |
Games between them in 2025–26, then every earlier meeting we have.
Jan 14, 2026· At California
DUKEDuke won71–56
Closing line: California +14.25(did not cover)
Duke leads 3–0 since 2009–10.
How each team fared against the 14 opponents they both played.
| Opponent | California | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| BOSBoston College | W86–75away | W67–49home |
| CLEClemson | L55–77home | W67–54homeW73–61neutral |
| FLOFlorida State | L61–63awayL89–95neutral | W91–87awayW80–79neutral |
| GEOGeorgia Tech | W90–85homeW76–65away | W85–79home |
| LOULouisville | L70–90home | W84–73awayW83–52home |
| UNCNorth Carolina | W84–78home | L68–71awayW76–61home |
| NOTNotre Dame | W72–71home | W100–56away |
| PITTPittsburgh | L56–72home | W70–54away |
| SMUSMU | W73–69home | W82–75home |
| STAStanford | W78–66awayW72–66home | W80–50away |
| SYRSyracuse | L100–107away | W101–64home |
| VIRVirginia | L60–84away | W77–51homeW74–70neutral |
| VIRVirginia Tech | L75–78away | W72–58away |
| WAKWake Forest | L73–80away | W90–69home |