Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 659 games through Nov 11
14%
California
86%
Duke
No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2026–27. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.
The biggest statistical gaps between California and Duke, quoted from their 2026–27 numbers. Opponent-adjusted efficiency and schedule strength stay hidden until both teams have played 8 games; until then they swing too much to mean anything.
Second chances for Duke
Duke grabs 35.4% of its misses (77th percentile); California secures 66.9% of opponents' misses (35th percentile).
Edge: Duke
Duke has the size advantage
Duke's minutes-weighted height is 1.6 inches taller than California's.
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | California | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Shooting | 59th | 52nd |
| Rebounding | 29th | 61st |
| Ball security | 78th | 45th |
| Size & experience | 63rd | 93rd |
Games between them in 2026–27, then every earlier meeting we have.
California and Duke did not play each other this season.
Duke leads 4–0 since 2009–10.
No common opponents this season.