Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 659 games through Nov 11
7%
Cal Poly
93%
Duke
No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2026–27. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.
The biggest statistical gaps between Cal Poly and Duke, quoted from their 2026–27 numbers. Opponent-adjusted efficiency and schedule strength stay hidden until both teams have played 8 games; until then they swing too much to mean anything.
Duke's hands vs. Cal Poly's ball security
Cal Poly turns it over on 26.0% of possessions (2nd percentile); Duke averages 11.0 steals (89th percentile).
Edge: Duke
Second chances for Duke
Duke grabs 35.4% of its misses (77th percentile); Cal Poly secures 65.3% of opponents' misses (27th percentile).
Edge: Duke
Duke is safer at the line late
Duke shoots 71.2% on free throws; Cal Poly 60.3%.
Edge: Duke
Pace clash: Cal Poly runs, Duke slows it down
Cal Poly averages 80.0 possessions per 40 minutes; Duke 73.5. Whoever sets the tempo plays its game.
Style matchup
Duke's bench scores more
Duke's reserves average 32.3 points per game; Cal Poly's 20.0.
Edge: Duke
Duke has the size advantage
Duke's minutes-weighted height is 1.4 inches taller than Cal Poly's.
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 345 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Cal Poly | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Shooting | 32nd | 51st |
| Rebounding | 35th | 61st |
| Ball security | 2nd | 46th |
| Size & experience | 89th | 94th |
Games between them in 2026–27, then every earlier meeting we have.
Cal Poly and Duke did not play each other this season.
No common opponents this season.