Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 659 games through Nov 11
9%
Buffalo
91%
Duke
No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2026–27. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.
The biggest statistical gaps between Buffalo and Duke, quoted from their 2026–27 numbers. Opponent-adjusted efficiency and schedule strength stay hidden until both teams have played 8 games; until then they swing too much to mean anything.
Duke's hands vs. Buffalo's ball security
Buffalo turns it over on 19.0% of possessions (34th percentile); Duke averages 11.0 steals (89th percentile).
Edge: Duke
Duke has the size advantage
Duke's minutes-weighted height is 2.9 inches taller than Buffalo's.
Edge: Duke
Pace clash: Buffalo runs, Duke slows it down
Buffalo averages 78.2 possessions per 40 minutes; Duke 73.5. Whoever sets the tempo plays its game.
Style matchup
Duke's bench scores more
Duke's reserves average 32.3 points per game; Buffalo's 23.9.
Edge: Duke
Duke has more continuity
Duke's minutes go to players averaging 1.89 seasons in the program; Buffalo's 1.11.
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 345 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Buffalo | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Shooting | 31st | 51st |
| Rebounding | 38th | 61st |
| Ball security | 34th | 46th |
| Size & experience | 17th | 94th |
Games between them in 2026–27, then every earlier meeting we have.
Buffalo and Duke did not play each other this season.
No common opponents this season.