Matchup Lab

Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.

Model win probability

Bracket Hero model

Neutral court · ratings from 659 games through Nov 11

Boston University

91%

Duke

Predicted score: 65–85
Model spread: Duke −19.6
Fair moneyline: +1005 / -1005

Range of likely final margins. The solid line is the model's expected margin. Hover to read the chance of a win by any margin.

Sportsbook market

No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2026–27. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.

What decides it

The biggest statistical gaps between Boston University and Duke, quoted from their 2026–27 numbers. Opponent-adjusted efficiency and schedule strength stay hidden until both teams have played 8 games; until then they swing too much to mean anything.

Matchup Lab · Bracket Hero

Tale of the tape

Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.

Boston UniversityDuke

Efficiency

Efficiency margin: ——; Boston University ; Duke . Even.
Offensive efficiency: ——; Boston University ; Duke . Even.
Defensive efficiency: ——; Boston University ; Duke . Even.
Strength of schedule: ——; Boston University ; Duke . Even.
Pace: 68.273.5; Boston University 25th percentile; Duke 76th percentile. Even.

Shooting

Field goal %: 48.7%48.1%; Boston University 73rd percentile; Duke 68th percentile. Even.
Three-point %: 31.6%30.1%; Boston University 39th percentile; Duke 29th percentile. Edge Boston University.
Three-point rate: 38.0%40.3%; Boston University 31st percentile; Duke 45th percentile. Edge Duke.
Free throw %: 68.3%

Possessions

Offensive rebound %: 29.9%35.4%; Boston University 38th percentile; Duke 77th percentile. Edge Duke.
Defensive rebound %: 66.7%67.7%; Boston University 33rd percentile; Duke 44th percentile. Edge Duke.
Turnover rate: 22.0%18.0%; Boston University 10th percentile; Duke 45th percentile. Edge Duke.
Assists per game

Defense

Opponent FG %: 45.0%36.3%; Boston University 28th percentile; Duke 86th percentile. Edge Duke.
Opponent 3P %: 28.6%26.4%; Boston University 69th percentile; Duke 82nd percentile. Edge Duke.
Steals per game: 4.711.0; Boston University 7th percentile; Duke 89th percentile. Edge Duke.
Blocks per game: 4.0

Roster

Average height: 6′6.1″6′7.6″; Boston University 80th percentile; Duke 99th percentile. Edge Duke.
Program experience: 2.40 yrs1.89 yrs; Boston University 96th percentile; Duke 88th percentile. Edge Boston University.
Bench points: 14.332.3; Boston University 6th percentile; Duke 71st percentile. Edge Duke.

Profile

National percentile by category
Category	Boston University	Duke
Shooting	50th	52nd
Rebounding	36th	61st
Ball security	10th	45th
Size & experience	88th	93rd

National percentiles (100th is best). Hover a category to see what it averages.

Head to head

Games between them in 2026–27, then every earlier meeting we have.

Boston University and Duke did not play each other this season.

Matchup Lab

Model win probability

Sportsbook market

What decides it

Model win probability

Sportsbook market

What decides it

Tale of the tape

Efficiency

Shooting

Possessions

Defense

Roster

Profile

Head to head

Common opponents