Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
2025–26 season
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
2%
Boston College
98%
Duke
Consensus closing line for their meeting on Feb 3 (at Duke), median of 2 books.
For that game the model gave Boston College 1% and a 29.3-point deficit; the market spread implied 1%. Duke won 67–49.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, the model picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Boston College and Duke, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Duke is the stronger team on paper
Duke outscored opponents by 40.4 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Boston College by 1.4.
Edge: Duke
Strength on strength: Duke's offense vs. Boston College's defense
Duke scores 129.2 per 100 possessions (99th percentile); Boston College allows 101.7 (86th percentile).
Even matchup
Duke is safer at the line late
Duke shoots 72.9% on free throws; Boston College 65.3%.
Edge: Duke
Duke faced the tougher schedule
Duke's average opponent was 7.6 points per 100 possessions better than Boston College's.
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Boston College | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 23rd | 99th |
| Defense | 86th | 100th |
| Shooting | 3rd | 69th |
| Rebounding | 59th | 39th |
| Ball security | 65th | 65th |
| Schedule | 77th | 96th |
Games between them in 2025–26, then every earlier meeting we have.
Feb 3, 2026· At Duke
DUKEDuke won67–49
Closing line: Boston College +26.5(covered)
Duke leads 10–0 since 2018–19.
How each team fared against the 14 opponents they both played.
| Opponent | Boston College | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| CALCalifornia | L75–86home | W71–56away |
| CLEClemson | L50–74away | W67–54homeW73–61neutral |
| FLOFlorida State | L72–80away | W91–87awayW80–79neutral |
| GEOGeorgia Tech | L53–65away | W85–79home |
| LOULouisville | L62–75away | W84–73awayW83–52home |
| NCSTNC State | L71–79home | W93–64away |
| NOTNotre Dame | L64–68awayW77–69home | W100–56away |
| PITTPittsburgh | W65–62home | W70–54away |
| SMUSMU | L70–94away | W82–75home |
| STAStanford | L64–70home | W80–50away |
| SYRSyracuse | W81–73home | W101–64home |
| VIRVirginia | L66–73home | W77–51homeW74–70neutral |
| VIRVirginia Tech | L63–72away | W72–58away |
| WAKWake Forest | W68–67home | W90–69home |