Matchup Lab

Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.

Model win probability

Bracket Hero model

Neutral court · ratings from 659 games through Nov 11

17%

Boston College

83%

Duke

Predicted score: 63–77
Model spread: Duke −14.0
Fair moneyline: +485 / -485

Range of likely final margins. The solid line is the model's expected margin. Hover to read the chance of a win by any margin.

Sportsbook market

No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2026–27. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.

What decides it

The biggest statistical gaps between Boston College and Duke, quoted from their 2026–27 numbers. Opponent-adjusted efficiency and schedule strength stay hidden until both teams have played 8 games; until then they swing too much to mean anything.

Matchup Lab · Bracket Hero

Tale of the tape

Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.

Boston CollegeDuke

Efficiency

Efficiency margin: ——; Boston College ; Duke . Even.
Offensive efficiency: ——; Boston College ; Duke . Even.
Defensive efficiency: ——; Boston College ; Duke . Even.
Strength of schedule: ——; Boston College ; Duke . Even.
Pace: 60.873.5; Boston College 3rd percentile; Duke 76th percentile. Even.

Shooting

Field goal %: 43.0%48.1%; Boston College 31st percentile; Duke 68th percentile. Edge Duke.
Three-point %: 28.8%30.1%; Boston College 23rd percentile; Duke 29th percentile. Even.
Three-point rate: 44.2%40.3%; Boston College 67th percentile; Duke 45th percentile. Edge Boston College.
Free throw %: 88.0%

Possessions

Offensive rebound %: 37.7%35.4%; Boston College 89th percentile; Duke 77th percentile. Edge Boston College.
Defensive rebound %: 59.1%67.7%; Boston College 4th percentile; Duke 44th percentile. Edge Duke.
Turnover rate: 15.0%18.0%; Boston College 78th percentile; Duke 45th percentile. Edge Boston College.
Assists per game

Defense

Opponent FG %: 36.8%36.3%; Boston College 84th percentile; Duke 86th percentile. Even.
Opponent 3P %: 24.4%26.4%; Boston College 89th percentile; Duke 82nd percentile. Even.
Steals per game: 7.311.0; Boston College 46th percentile; Duke 89th percentile. Edge Duke.
Blocks per game: 3.3

Roster

Average height: 6′5.8″6′7.6″; Boston College 66th percentile; Duke 99th percentile. Edge Duke.
Program experience: 1.01 yrs1.89 yrs; Boston College 6th percentile; Duke 88th percentile. Edge Duke.
Bench points: 17.732.3; Boston College 15th percentile; Duke 71st percentile. Edge Duke.

Profile

National percentile by category
Category	Boston College	Duke
Shooting	51st	52nd
Rebounding	46th	61st
Ball security	78th	45th
Size & experience	36th	93rd

National percentiles (100th is best). Hover a category to see what it averages.

Head to head

Games between them in 2026–27, then every earlier meeting we have.

Boston College and Duke did not play each other this season.

Earlier meetings

Duke leads 11–0 since 2018–19.

Feb 2026DUKEDuke 67–49at Duke
Jan 2025DUKEDuke 88–63

Matchup Lab

Model win probability

Sportsbook market

What decides it

Model win probability

Sportsbook market

What decides it

Tale of the tape

Efficiency

Shooting

Possessions

Defense

Roster

Profile

Head to head

Earlier meetings

Common opponents