Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
2025–26 season
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
1%
Bethune-Cookman
99%
Duke
No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2025–26. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, the model picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Bethune-Cookman and Duke, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Duke is the stronger team on paper
Duke outscored opponents by 40.4 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Bethune-Cookman by -9.3.
Edge: Duke
Duke faced the tougher schedule
Duke's average opponent was 22.1 points per 100 possessions better than Bethune-Cookman's.
Edge: Duke
Duke's offense should find room
Duke's offense ranks in the 99th percentile; Bethune-Cookman's defense in the 34th percentile.
Edge: Duke
Second chances for Duke
Duke grabs 30.8% of its misses (53rd percentile); Bethune-Cookman secures 67.0% of opponents' misses (13th percentile).
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Bethune-Cookman | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 22nd | 99th |
| Defense | 34th | 100th |
| Shooting | 46th | 69th |
| Rebounding | 21st | 39th |
| Ball security | 15th | 65th |
| Schedule | 19th | 96th |
Games between them in 2025–26, then every earlier meeting we have.
Bethune-Cookman and Duke did not play each other this season.
No common opponents this season.