Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 659 games through Nov 11
1%
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
99%
Duke
No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2026–27. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.
The biggest statistical gaps between Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Duke, quoted from their 2026–27 numbers. Opponent-adjusted efficiency and schedule strength stay hidden until both teams have played 8 games; until then they swing too much to mean anything.
Duke's hands vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff's ball security
Arkansas-Pine Bluff turns it over on 38.0% of possessions (0th percentile); Duke averages 11.0 steals (89th percentile).
Edge: Duke
Second chances for Duke
Duke grabs 35.4% of its misses (77th percentile); Arkansas-Pine Bluff secures 60.0% of opponents' misses (5th percentile).
Edge: Duke
Second chances for Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Arkansas-Pine Bluff grabs 38.3% of its misses (90th percentile); Duke secures 67.7% of opponents' misses (44th percentile).
Edge: Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Duke has the size advantage
Duke's minutes-weighted height is 1.7 inches taller than Arkansas-Pine Bluff's.
Edge: Duke
Duke's bench scores more
Duke's reserves average 32.3 points per game; Arkansas-Pine Bluff's 23.3.
Edge: Duke
Duke has more continuity
Duke's minutes go to players averaging 1.89 seasons in the program; Arkansas-Pine Bluff's 1.23.
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 345 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Shooting | 9th | 51st |
| Rebounding | 48th | 61st |
| Ball security | 0th | 46th |
| Size & experience | 48th | 94th |
Games between them in 2026–27, then every earlier meeting we have.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Duke did not play each other this season.
Duke leads 1–0 since 2009–10.
No common opponents this season.