Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 659 games through Nov 11
2%
Alcorn State
98%
Duke
No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2026–27. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.
The biggest statistical gaps between Alcorn State and Duke, quoted from their 2026–27 numbers. Opponent-adjusted efficiency and schedule strength stay hidden until both teams have played 8 games; until then they swing too much to mean anything.
Duke's hands vs. Alcorn State's ball security
Alcorn State turns it over on 27.0% of possessions (2nd percentile); Duke averages 11.0 steals (89th percentile).
Edge: Duke
Second chances for Duke
Duke grabs 35.4% of its misses (77th percentile); Alcorn State secures 63.6% of opponents' misses (19th percentile).
Edge: Duke
Second chances for Alcorn State
Alcorn State grabs 45.2% of its misses (99th percentile); Duke secures 67.7% of opponents' misses (44th percentile).
Edge: Alcorn State
Duke is safer at the line late
Duke shoots 71.2% on free throws; Alcorn State 59.7%.
Edge: Duke
Duke has more continuity
Duke's minutes go to players averaging 1.89 seasons in the program; Alcorn State's 1.00.
Edge: Duke
Duke has the size advantage
Duke's minutes-weighted height is 1.2 inches taller than Alcorn State's.
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 345 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Alcorn State | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Shooting | 23rd | 51st |
| Rebounding | 59th | 61st |
| Ball security | 2nd | 46th |
| Size & experience | 45th | 94th |
Games between them in 2026–27, then every earlier meeting we have.
Alcorn State and Duke did not play each other this season.
No common opponents this season.