Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
2025–26 season
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
<1%
Alabama State
>99%
Duke
No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2025–26. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, the model picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Alabama State and Duke, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Duke is the stronger team on paper
Duke outscored opponents by 40.4 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Alabama State by -16.1.
Edge: Duke
Duke's offense should find room
Duke's offense ranks in the 99th percentile; Alabama State's defense in the 20th percentile.
Edge: Duke
Duke faced the tougher schedule
Duke's average opponent was 24.5 points per 100 possessions better than Alabama State's.
Edge: Duke
Second chances for Alabama State
Alabama State grabs 34.5% of its misses (91st percentile); Duke secures 67.9% of opponents' misses (25th percentile).
Edge: Alabama State
Pace clash: Alabama State runs, Duke slows it down
Alabama State averages 71.2 possessions per 40 minutes; Duke 66.5. Whoever sets the tempo plays its game.
Style matchup
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Alabama State | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 11th | 99th |
| Defense | 20th | 100th |
| Shooting | 17th | 69th |
| Rebounding | 82nd | 39th |
| Ball security | 28th | 65th |
| Schedule | 7th | 96th |
Games between them in 2025–26, then every earlier meeting we have.
Alabama State and Duke did not play each other this season.
Duke leads 1–0 since 2003–04.
How each team fared against the 1 opponent they both played.
| Opponent | Alabama State | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| FLOFlorida State | L64–101away | W91–87awayW80–79neutral |