Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 659 games through Nov 11
3%
Alabama State
97%
Duke
No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2026–27. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.
The biggest statistical gaps between Alabama State and Duke, quoted from their 2026–27 numbers. Opponent-adjusted efficiency and schedule strength stay hidden until both teams have played 8 games; until then they swing too much to mean anything.
Duke's hands vs. Alabama State's ball security
Alabama State turns it over on 23.0% of possessions (6th percentile); Duke averages 11.0 steals (89th percentile).
Edge: Duke
Second chances for Alabama State
Alabama State grabs 42.6% of its misses (97th percentile); Duke secures 67.7% of opponents' misses (44th percentile).
Edge: Alabama State
Duke has the size advantage
Duke's minutes-weighted height is 2.9 inches taller than Alabama State's.
Edge: Duke
Duke's bench scores more
Duke's reserves average 32.3 points per game; Alabama State's 17.0.
Edge: Duke
Duke has more continuity
Duke's minutes go to players averaging 1.89 seasons in the program; Alabama State's 1.28.
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Alabama State | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Shooting | 35th | 52nd |
| Rebounding | 86th | 61st |
| Ball security | 6th | 45th |
| Size & experience | 27th | 93rd |
Games between them in 2026–27, then every earlier meeting we have.
Alabama State and Duke did not play each other this season.
Duke leads 1–0 since 2003–04.
No common opponents this season.