Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
2025–26 season
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
<1%
Air Force
>99%
Duke
No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2025–26. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, the model picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Air Force and Duke, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Duke is the stronger team on paper
Duke outscored opponents by 40.4 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Air Force by -21.9.
Edge: Duke
Duke's offense should find room
Duke's offense ranks in the 99th percentile; Air Force's defense in the 15th percentile.
Edge: Duke
Duke is safer at the line late
Duke shoots 72.9% on free throws; Air Force 64.1%.
Edge: Duke
Duke faced the tougher schedule
Duke's average opponent was 9.0 points per 100 possessions better than Air Force's.
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Air Force | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 3rd | 99th |
| Defense | 15th | 100th |
| Shooting | 8th | 69th |
| Rebounding | 44th | 39th |
| Ball security | 2nd | 65th |
| Schedule | 75th | 96th |
Games between them in 2025–26, then every earlier meeting we have.
Air Force and Duke did not play each other this season.
No common opponents this season.